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Stats Analysis: The darting endurance of Dave Chisnall & Peter Wright
Peter Wright & Dave Chisnall (PDC Europe)
In his latest column, PDC Stats Analyst Christopher Kempf explores how Dave Chisnall and Peter Wright have reinvented their respective games over the last decade, to maintain their status amongst the darting elite…
The PDC adopted Tour Cards in 2011. Only 15 players have held onto them, uninterrupted, for all 14 seasons in this period, and no two players have maintained such a consistently high ranking throughout this period as Dave Chisnall and Peter Wright.
Though the prize money always kept trickling in to maintain that ranking, after their debuts as PDC professionals in the early 2010s, the subsequent years were difficult ones for Wright and Chisnall.
Between 2016 and 2019, Chisnall went winless in 27 consecutive matches against then world number one Michael van Gerwen and lost five televised finals, winning just enough to allow him to briefly achieve a top-five ranking, but never enough to seriously challenge Van Gerwen.
If Wright had more success overall than Chisnall against the ‘Green Machine’ during these years, it deserted him in big finals; Wright lost his first ten ranking televised finals to Van Gerwen before finally breaking his curse at the 2020 PDC World Championship.
These two veteran players have enjoyed the most success of their careers well past the PDC Tour Card Holders’ median age of 35, and their most recent results on the European Tour further confirm their resilience and longevity after some 15 years of continuous play in professional darts. What is the secret to their endurance?
Chisnall has managed to reinvent himself after the pandemic interruption as a reliable and efficient player in the model of James Wade, as a correction to the heavy-scoring but erratic performances of his mid-career.
Chisnall still throws more 180s than the average player, to be sure – this is never a bad attribute in a player – but the rate of maxima scored on the European Tour has increased by 2.5 per 100 legs, in spite of Chisnall’s declining rate.
In fact, a look at Chisnall’s top-line stats of 2024 relative to 2019 show declines across the board: in averages, in doubles and in 180s, while the PDC average has steadily risen.
What could account for the fact that the man in yellow has hoisted two European Tour trophies this summer alone?
Most of Chisnall’s achievements have come in fields which don’t usually make highlight videos, but they are just as important to a player’s chances of winning a match.
Chisnall was successful in completing 75% of his checkouts which could have been completed with one dart (2-40 even) within the visit in 2019; this was less than 2% higher than the Euro Tour average that year.
This year Chisnall has improved to 79.3%, which puts him more than 4% above the field. In 12 matches during 2024, Chisnall has completed every such checkout without giving his opponents a chance to return to the board.
This contributes to another area in which Chizzy has improved; winning as many legs as possible by the end of the sixth visit.
Even while his averages have declined and he has thrown fewer 12-dart legs, he has improved to 84.3% of legs won in 18 darts or fewer.
Chisnall’s OChE rating indicates how critical this improvement has been to his success. By maximizing 180s and missing doubles in 2019, Chisnall averaged 97.63 but in a manner which would only win 58% of legs on the ProTour.
In 2024 the St Helens star is averaging less than 96 but his OChE has improved to 58.68 – he is making every dart count far more than he did five years ago.
If Chisnall has realised that denying opponents three more darts is more valuable than any 180, it has shown in the way he has won his matches and his two European Tour titles in 2024.
The comparison for Peter Wright between 2024 and the peak of his rivalry with Van Gerwen is likely to be even less favourable – after all, Wright won five European Tour titles in 2017 and even defeated the Dutchman in two of those finals.
In no year before or since has Wright won more titles overall, come closer to winning the Premier League or had better results in televised non-World Championship ranking events.
By contrast, 2024 has been a lean year for ‘Snakebite’ – his win in Hildesheim was the first time this year he reached the quarter-final of any ranking stage event, and Wright has recorded some of the lowest averages of his career, placing him in the middle or bottom of the Form Guide rankings for much of the year.