No female gymnast has ever won more than four gold medals in a single Olympics.Simone Biles reached that milestone in Rio de Janeiro in 2016. She was the first American woman to do so.And now she has a chance to top that record in Paris.Biles competed in the qualification rounds Sunday morning. During warm-ups for her second routine, on floor exercise, she suffered an injury to her left calf and then spoke to the U.S. team doctor—sending chills up the spines of countless viewers who recalled her exit from the competition floor during the team final three years ago in Tokyo, when the twisties took her out of contention for any gold medals. But this time, she returned to compete with her leg and ankle taped, showing minimal reaction to a series of tough landings on floor, vault and uneven bars to complete qualifications.She exhibited a sense of humor throughout the competition, crawling past the vault runway after warming up there and smiling for the cameras there. Hoping to dispel rumors of a repeat Kerri Strug situation—when Strug gamely completed a vault in the 1996 team final on an obviously injured ankle—Biles’ coach, Cecile Landi, told reporters that the injury was not new, was not severe, and would not take Biles out of competition. Then she refused to answer further questions about the calf, telling reporters she would only discuss the entire team going forward.Biles has qualified, with the rest of the American women, to the team final Tuesday. She will also compete in the four finals to which she qualified individually: the all-around final on Thursday, the vault final on Saturday, and the beam and floor finals on August 5. Some of those medals are as close to locks as you can get in a subjectively judged and notoriously risky sport, and some will be close calls.What are Biles’ chances at each of the five gold medals for which she is now in contention?The U.S. is poised to win gold in the team final if most things go its way. The Americans qualified for the final in first place with a monumental 172.296 points, more than five points ahead of the Italians.Italy and Brazil, which qualified in fourth, will be the U.S. squad’s biggest competition here. The Brazilians have star Rebeca Andrade and beam and floor standout Flavia Saraiva but lack the depth to catch the Americans for gold unless mistakes are made, and a lot of them. A strong Italian team could surprise for silver but is unlikely to challenge for gold.After that, it’s anyone’s guess: China is a perennial favorite in team finals but lacks leg-event scores; Japan is missing an athlete; Great Britain’s team is depleted from the one that surprisingly won bronze at the Tokyo Olympics. Romania and Canada, both solid but likely lacking the difficulty to challenge for medals, round out the team final.This is the first-ever Olympic all-around final featuring two previous all-around champions facing off against each other: Biles, who won in 2016, and fellow American Suni Lee, who won in 2021. But it’s Andrade, who won gold at the 2022 world championships before Biles and Lee returned to elite competition following Tokyo, who poses the biggest threat to Biles’ expected dominance in this competition.Biles admitted in Netflix’s Simone Biles Rising documentary that Andrade “scares [her] the most.” Andrade, for her part, has said the rivalry is friendly and that she sees Biles as “an inspiration.” But expect to see Andrade pulling out upgrades across all four events to put Biles’ feet to the fire; she has submitted the triple-twisting Yurchenko vault, which would be named for her if she completes it, and debuted upgrades throughout qualifications.Lee will defend her title to the end but ultimately lacks the difficulty on vault and floor to catch Biles or Andrade. Errors by either could open the door for Lee.Expect another duel between Biles and Andrade for vault gold. This one could be the closest of all their matchups, particularly if Andrade completes the aforementioned triple-twisting Yurchenko.Even without that skill, however, Andrade snatched vault gold at last year’s world championships after Biles fell on her own eponymous skill, the Yurchenko double pike.Biles has elected to perform that vault without her coach, Laurent Landi, spotting her, something that comes with an automatic deduction and likely made the difference in medal color at worlds.If Andrade pulls out a vault upgrade in either team finals or the all-around final, we’re likely to see it again here; even if she doesn’t, if Biles falls or falters, Andrade could take first place. But if Biles does her usual, she will likely secure the gold.Biles has won gold medals on beam at four world championships, but Olympic beam gold remains elusive. In 2016, she stumbled on the event and wound up with bronze. In 2021, the beam represented her triumphant return to competition after withdrawing from nearly every other event in Tokyo, and she categorized the bronze medal she won there as one of the most significant of her career, saying, “It means more than all the golds.”The bad news: It’s not guaranteed. Andrade and Lee are competing here. Lee was shaky in qualifying, but if she is on, she can go lights-out. Sabrina Voinea of Romania could also threaten for a medal, and Italians Manila Esposito and Alice D’Amato are strong here on their best days.Biles qualified in second, behind Zhou Yaqin of China, her closest challenger at last year’s world championships This is no cakewalk. But if moxie and a desire for redemption count for anything, we could see Biles come out on top here.This one is practically automatic by now, but we have to account for Biles’ penchant for stepping out of bounds. It usually does not matter; her difficulty, aided by that awesome triple-double she does, is so high that it can override a step off the mat. But she needs to keep it pretty tight for the final.Biles’ teammate Jordan Chiles will compete here and is a well-known crowd-pleaser. Andrade could shine here as well (though she also has a tendency to step out of bounds, as she did in Tokyo when Jade Carey surpassed her for gold). Voinea could surprise here; Esposito has a beautiful routine but may lack the difficulty for the podium.
