Sabalenka’s form on clay before the French Open has been excellent. She reached the quarter-final in Stuttgart where she lost to Marketa Vondrousova. After that, Sabalenka made it to two successive finals in Madrid and Rome but lost to top seed Iga Swiatek on both occasions.
Sablenka has been in pristine form at the French Open. In the opening two rounds against Erika Andreeva and Moyuka Uchijima, the second seed came through in straight sets and has lost just seven games so far.
On the other hand, Paula Badosa’s 2024 season has been marred by injury concerns. Throughout the season, she has had multiple withdrawals. The latest withdrawal came at the Stuttgart Open where she had to give a walkover to Sabalenka in the middle of the third and deciding set. However, at the Italian Open, Badosa made it to the Round of 16 where she lost to Coco Gauff.
Badosa’s two matches in the opening rounds at Roland Garros have been grueling three-setters. On both occasions, against 26th seed Katie Boulter and Yulia Putintseva, Badosa had to come back from being a set down. The Spaniard showed fine mental resolve to turn the matches around in her favor.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head 4-2. Their last meeting in Stuttgart ended in the Belarusian’s favor when Badosa retired in the third set. Sabalenka won the last completed match between the pair in Miami this year.
Sabalenka has added several components to her game, which make her even more effective on clay. Apart from her power-packed baseline game, the Belarusian has started to employ more drop shots in her matches to confuse her opponents and bring them more to the net.
Badosa, on the other hand, made some adjustments in her game in the first couple of matches at the French Open. In the first round, Badosa came to the net only seven times while in the second round, she moved to the net 29 times.
Badosa has spent more than double the time on the court compared to Sabalenka in her first and second rounds. Given the current form and Badosa’s underlying injury concerns, Sabalenka should be able to win the match.